Development Path Change

The model was developed using Unity 3D, and requires a web player plugin for viewing and interacting. If you do not have the plugin, click on the button below to download and install. The model is best viewed using Safari or Mozilla.

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MLP is depicted as blue circle. The components of MLP are arranged as a hierarchal system consisting of niche (local), regime (provincial and national), and landscape (global) levels. SPT is displayed as an orange circle, and it is oriented at a right angle from the MLP circle. It consists of spectrum ranging from emergent practices (i.e., practices perform by singular people) to practice complexes (i.e., matured systems of intertwined actions, developed through co-evolution and guided by norms). SES is displayed in two interlinked green loops, and it is oriented at a 45 degree angle from both the MLP and SPT circles. The loops represent the adaptive cycle and its four stages – growth, conservation, release and reorganization (or renewal).

The model is dynamic, and the movement of the spheres illustrate the interplay between MLP, STP, and SES. The sphere paths intersect at two points in the model, and each intersection represents a different form of multi-scalar interaction.

It is important to note that the model simplifies systems dynamics, and the reality is that the sphere movement would not necessarily occur at such consistent intervals and directions. In addition, systems are much more complex, and as in panarchy, the model could actually be represented through a series of linked cycles and loops. However, the purpose of developing the model was to provide a clear analytical direction for developing a theory of change, and thus some simplification was required.

The areas of the model that are of most interest are the intersections. Interrogating these intersections can elucidate how interactions between various actors, actions, systems, and scales can orient a community and/or society toward a certain development path and forms of change. In addition, the two intersections represents different arrangements of interactions occurring in different ‘directions’ (i.e., ‘top-down’ or ‘bottom-up’) , which potentially could lead to understanding around both sides of the change spectrum. More specifically speaking, intersection 1 might illuminate what leads to transformative change; whereas, intersection 2 might provide insights on what maintains paths of incremental change.